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Sensex is currently at a crucial level

Posted by Manish Agrawal on Monday, 15 September, 2008

The Sensex, after recording its all-time high of 21206 points in January 2008, has been trading lower. The broader trend has turned negative, as the long-term upward bias channelled trend for the index has been breached in January 2008.

Since the index has been trading below the channel trend line and continues to form lower highs and lower lows. The bear phase that began in January 2008 would remain intact for minimum 18 months, which is the one-third of the time period taken by the Sensex bull rally which began in May 2003 and ended in January 2008 (lasted for 56 months of time period).

Hence, the bear phase would continue to last for a minimum of 10 months more i.e. up to July 2009. However, it remains to be seen whether the recent low of 12514 formed in July 2008 would remain intact, as the bottom for the current bear phase, or if the Sensex would form a new low below 12514. Sensex’s downward move from its all-time high of 21206 on the weekly chart is channelled and continues to from lower highs and lower lows, indicating the continuation of the bear phase. As long as the index continues to form lower highs and lower lows and moves within the channel, it is most likely to slip below its recent low of 12514 to form a new low.

During the current downtrend, we have so far witnessed three rallies and each rally has been of minimum 3000 points and the fall, following the rally, has been of minimum 5000 points.

The Sensex opened with a bullish gap during the week and recorded a high of 15107 on Monday, rising by 624 points intra-day. However, it failed to hold on to its initial gains and corrected subsequently to end the week negative by 483 points. The Sensex has given a close at 14000 levels, which is very crucial.

The rise from 12514 recorded in July 2008 till date has formed a NeoWave “Extracting Triangle” pattern or a “Head and Shoulder” pattern.

Trading below 14000 levels for two consecutive days would confirm the bearish breakout of the pattern, under this scenario the Sensex could move down to 13727-13505 points. Any pull-back would get resisted at the neckline whose value for the current week is placed at 14215.

Above this level, the next resistance is placed at 14523, which is due to the weekly channel resistance trend line. At higher levels, the Sensex move above 15579 level would negate the negative outlook for the index, in which case fresh buying can be suggested. Until then, stay away from the market.



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